Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Spiral: Education Gaps, Returnee Surge and Shrinking Aid

Since the Taliban’s return in 2021, more than 2.6 million Afghan girls have been denied secondary education and female university enrollment is now zero. Economic fragility is also keeping many boys out of school, as families struggle to afford fees. In addition, Afghan women employed by the United Nations have been barred from entering UN premises nationwide since September 2025, further limiting their participation in public life. These combined restrictions tighten the country’s most sensitive education challenge and curtail future workforce prospects.

An estimated 6.7 million Afghans have been forced to return since 2020, many expelled from Pakistan and Iran, adding pressure to already stretched health, shelter and protection services. Returnees often lack legal documentation, protection and reliable employment, prompting repeated calls for “jobs, jobs, jobs.” At the same time, opium poppy production surged by 330 percent in 2025 as farmers hide crops from the Taliban and cite survival concerns, saying, “We cannot survive. And we don’t want to die.”

Humanitarian financing has fallen sharply, from about $2 billion in 2023 to $1 billion in 2025 and to roughly $570 million so far in 2026 – barely a quarter of the 2023 level. The United Nations projects that 40 percent of primary health facilities, roughly 700 of the 1,900 health posts, will close by the end of 2026. With regional instability, a stronger‑than‑ever El Niño pattern and the mass return of displaced people, humanitarian needs are expected to rise sharply in 2027, threatening food security and regional stability.