UN Report Calls for Rapid Emissions Cuts to Keep 1.5°C Goal Within Reach

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 warns that global warming is set to surpass the 1.5°C threshold that the Paris Agreement aimed to protect. In a “lowest‑possible” overshoot scenario, peak warming could reach 1.7‑1.8°C by mid‑century. To keep the temperature rise as close to the target as possible, the report says emissions must fall by 18 % by the end of the decade, by 45 % by 2035 and by 69 % by 2040, using 2025 levels as the baseline. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres stressed that limiting the overshoot is still feasible if the world “pulls out all the stops.”

Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, renewable energy capacity has expanded dramatically, and the growth rate of coal and oil supplies has lagged behind earlier forecasts. Climate policies introduced in many countries have already delivered measurable emissions reductions. Nevertheless, the report projects that if current policies remain unchanged, global temperatures could climb to about 2.8°C by the end of the century. Even a full implementation of all submitted Nationally Determined Contributions would only limit warming to roughly 2.6°C, still well above the 1.5°C goal.

The report links the needed emissions cuts to the objectives set out in the first Global Stocktake. By 2030, renewable energy capacity must be tripled and the annual rate of energy‑efficiency improvements doubled. Shifting away from fossil fuels also requires cutting the share of coal, oil and gas in the overall energy mix by at least 55 %, 15 % and 5 % respectively by 2035, and by at least 75 %, 30 % and 35 % by 2040, compared with 2025 figures. The upcoming second Global Stocktake at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, is expected to translate these benchmarks into concrete, quantified targets.